Next, early-maturing apples will be gradually listed after mid-May, and late-maturing Red Fuji apples will also be gradually listed around the Mid-Autumn Festival. From the current market situation of cold storage apples, many market participants have analyzed that after the new round of apples this year, the price will be better than the 2022/2023 production season.
So why have Apple prices been bullish this year?
There are roughly the following three reasons.
Rumors of production cuts are rife
When the new round of apple fruit setting is still far away, rumors about the reduction of apple production this year began to spread everywhere.
As for why Apple may cut production this year?
There are generally two more subjective analyses:
Picture
One is the cliché of the weather. Some fruit tree producing areas encountered abnormal "cold weather in late spring" some time ago, and it was very serious. In some places, it even snowed heavily when the fruit trees were blooming. Such cold weather in late spring will inevitably affect the flowering and fruiting of fruit trees, thus reducing the yield of fruit this year.
In this late spring cold, apple production has also been affected to varying degrees. However, it is difficult to define the specific real impact.
Picture
Second, in the current market, it is circulated that many apple producing areas are "cutting down trees", and some orchards are returning to farming because of unclear land use. Some orchards have become fields again, so that the entire apple planting area may have shrunk, and the yield is likely to have a certain impact.
However, these are only predictions, and there is no way to verify the actual impact and whether it has an impact.
In the current market, it is rumored that a new round of Apple production will be reduced this year. It is not a firm fact. Time should be left to speak.
Fruit hoarders sharpen their knives and are enthusiastic.
If the price of apples is to rise sharply, in addition to production, market speculation is also essential.
Over the years, some of the newly planted Red Fuji apples will flow directly into the market, but more will be bought by local professional fruit hoarders and sold slowly in cold storage.
The number of apples hoarded into cold storage had a great impact on the price of apples in the later period.
Picture
Judging from the market situation of apples in cold storage this year, the price of apples bought by fruit hoarders from fruit growers in the producing areas was not too high this year, but from November to December, the price of fruits on the market suddenly increased collectively, the price of pears doubled instantly, and the price of apples also rose with the tide. Then, all the way to triumph, the price went up.
According to this market trend, fruit hoarders should have eaten meat when hoarding apples this year. When fruit hoarders get the meat by hoarding apples, they have more money in their hands and more confidence in hoarding apples. In other words, after the new round of apples, these fruit hoarders will be more active in buying apples.
The enthusiastic fruit hoarders are optimistic about the later price of apples, and they will buy apples in a big way, and the number of apples flowing to the market in the early stage will decrease. As the supply decreases, the price of apples on the market will naturally rise. This is also a big reason why many people are optimistic that apple prices will continue to rise this year.
Environmental Impact of Fruit Market
This year is also a year of recovery in fruit consumption, and the public may eat more fruit than in previous years. For example, the number of Thai durian that has recently been hyped has increased to more than 700,000 tons this year. This is a number that was not available in previous years.
This shows that this year's fruit consumption is more active than in previous years.
Picture
In the current fruit market, all kinds of fruits are competing for beauty, but they are basically "not cheap". The retail prices of citrus, grapes, pears, cold storage apples, nectarines and other fruits are relatively high compared with previous years. Like a few days ago, the Internet has been discussing a topic "Why fruit is becoming more and more unaffordable", which also confirms a problem from the side. The current price of fruit is on the high side.
In such a market atmosphere, although apples exist as popular fruits, their prices will also be strongly affected by the market. If pears rise, apples may rise; if citrus prices rise, apples may also rise. This is the law of the market in the past, this year may be repeated.
In the case of a better overall price of fruit, the price of apples is generally not outrageous enough to fall alone, and the probability is that they will rise along with other fruits.
Fruit consumption environment is better, apple's bullish sentiment is naturally strong. This is another big reason to judge that Apple may continue to rise.
Will apples become luxury fruits this year?
Apple's prices on the acquisition and wholesale side have always fluctuated over the years, with large fluctuations. But one thing that has been criticized is that the price of apples at the retail end has been high. This is dominated by Red Fuji apples in Shangchao, and the price is usually not low. The retail price of 8-10 yuan/jin is endless in many cities.
The apple industry was originally a mass fruit that wins by quantity. However, after taking the so-called "high-quality" route, more and more "high-quality fruits" flood the fruit market, and the price of high-quality fruits is naturally higher than the previous mid-to-low-end Apple is a lot higher. The more fine apples on the market, the higher the price of apples appears.
Picture
This year, some netizens said bluntly that Apple is also becoming a luxury fruit. In fact, that is to say, the retail end of those relatively high-priced boutique Red Fuji apples.
So, if it goes on like this, will this year's apples really become luxury fruits?
First of all, the gradual luxury of Apple prices is not a problem this year, and it has always been a problem in the past. If the purchase price of apples in the producing areas rises sharply this year due to the above three factors or other factors, then the retail price is likely to explode again.
It is not impossible for Apple's retail price to exceed 10 yuan/kg.
Picture
However, even in 2019, the output of apples has dropped sharply and the price has increased by leaps and bounds. The price of apples on the retail side is about 13 yuan/kg, which is already very high. But if it is a "luxury price", it is a bit inappropriate. After all, in the current fruit market, it is simply eight immortals crossing the sea to show their magic, like durian, blueberries, big cherries, grapes retail price which do not all have to thirty or forty yuan a kilo? Even if the price of apples goes up, there is still a long way to go from the real luxury fruits such as durian and blueberries.
In other words, it is possible for Apple to raise its price, but it is unlikely that it will rise too far, and its limit is about 10 yuan/jin. After all, apple is a popular fruit with a very large output, and the storage cost and transportation cost are not too high. Such a fruit has no basis and conditions for crazy price increase.
In the future, the apple market may gradually "differentiate". There will be high-priced apples, low-priced apples, high-quality fruits and mass fruits, gradually forming a reasonable and comprehensive market sales channel.
Is the future of the Apple market good?
2020-2022 is a relatively sluggish year for the apple market and even the fruit market, and there is a general situation of "quantity over demand" for fruits on the market. Especially in the major fruit producing areas, many fruit farmers have encountered difficulties such as "low-price purchase" and "difficult to have a market", which has also hurt the hearts of many fruit farmers. At the same time, the market is generally not optimistic about the future market of apples and other fruits, believing that there will be no "money way" for growing fruits.
However, since the second half of last year, the fruit market suddenly broke out, which gave many fruit growers confidence to continue to grow fruit.
Picture
So, will the future apple and even fruit market be a good one?
We believe that for fruit growers, it is still necessary to be cautious about the rise and fall of the current fruit market. Although there are various signs that the supply of domestic fruits may decline, don't forget that we are not the only ones growing fruits in the world. In addition to domestic fruits, there are many imported fruits in the market.
Countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand, and Chile also have fruits. If the output of domestic fruits decreases and the supply decreases, it is very likely that a certain amount of fruits will be imported from abroad to fill this gap. The price of fruit will still be controlled within a certain range and will not rise as well as you think.
On the whole, when planting apples or other fruits, in the future, we must adhere to the idea of "people have nothing" and grow our own characteristics, so that we can steadily sell at higher prices.
Otherwise, it is not an excellent judgment to decide whether to plant apples based solely on market price fluctuations.
What do you think?